How often do videos actually go viral?
November 2026
1 in 17TikToks gets 10 times the creator's usual views.
What are the odds a video takes off? How many videos does it take to get there? And how long does a video keep getting views? We tracked 564,297 videos from 2,003 creators, including 775 who started from zero.
The top lessons you can use
- Make enough videos to get your shots. About 1 in 17 TikToks gets 10 times the creator's usual views, and those few videos bring in most of the views.
- Don't judge yourself by one video. For the typical creator, the top 10% of their videos brought in 65% of all their views.
- If you're starting out, give it at least 30 to 50 videos. New creators who reached 100,000 views on a video got there on their 23rd video (the median), and only 19% did it within their first 10.
- Don't delete videos that start slow. A typical TikTok gets about 51% of its first-year views after its first week, and 81% of videos over 3 months old were still gaining views.
- On Instagram, the first week matters more: a typical Reel gets about 70% of its first-year views in its first week.
Key points
About 6% of TikToks got 10 times the creator's usual views; 23% got at least double. 92% of creators had at least one 10× video.
The top 10% of a creator's videos brought in 65% of their views. Their single best video: 12%.
New creators who got a 100,000-view video did it on their 23rd video (median), about 35 days after their first post.
A typical TikTok gets about half its first-year views after the first week. 81% of 3-month-old videos were still gaining views.
A typical Reel gets about 70% of its first-year views in the first week, and 80% in the first month.
Under 1k followers, about 1 in 45 videos got 10× the creator's usual; at 10k–100k, about 1 in 15.
The specifics
About 1 in 17 TikToks gets 10× the creator's usual views
We compared each video with the same creator's typical views from the surrounding month. 23% got at least double, 11% at least 5 times and 5.9% at least 10 times. 0.6% got 100 times their usual (about 1 in 167). On the other side, 17% got half or less.
Most of your views come from a few videos
For the typical creator, the top 10% of their videos brought in 65% of all their views since January 2025, and their single best video alone 12%. That's why posting more gives you more chances: you can't tell in advance which video will be the one.
New creators reached 100k views on their 23rd video
We followed 775 creators who started posting in 2025 or later, from their very first video. Those who got a video to 10,000 views did it on their 9th video (median); to 100,000 views, their 23rd video, about 35 days in; to a million, their 50th video. Within their first 10 videos, 40% had reached 10,000 views and 19% 100,000.
A TikTok keeps getting views for months
We measured how fast videos of every age were still gaining views over the same day. A typical TikTok had about 40% of its first-year views after one day, 49% after a week and 58% after a month, so about half came after the first week. 81% of videos over 3 months old were still gaining views.
Instagram Reels peak sooner
On Instagram, a typical Reel had about 70% of its first-year views after a week and 80% after a month, so the first days matter more than on TikTok.
About 1 in 17 TikToks breaks out
Share of videos that beat the same creator's typical views (from the surrounding month) by each multiple.
TikTok
17% of TikToks got half their usual views or less.
209 Instagram creators, their latest 100 or so Reels each.
By follower count (TikTok)
| Followers | 2× or more | 10× or more | Creators with a 10× video | Creators |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1k | 18% | 1 in 45 | 60% | 205 |
| 1k–10k | 20% | 1 in 19 | 94% | 383 |
| 10k–100k | 25% | 1 in 15 | 98% | 522 |
| 100k–1M | 27% | 1 in 13 | 100% | 320 |
| 1M+ | 28% | 1 in 18 | 99% | 68 |
"Creators with a 10× video" counts any since January 2025. For the typical creator, the top 10% of their videos brought in 65% of their views, and their single best video 12%.
How many videos before the first big one?
We followed 775 TikTok creators who started posting in 2025 or later, from their very first video, and counted how many videos it took to reach each milestone.
| First video with | Got there | On their… (median) | Days in (median) | Within 10 videos | Within 30 | Within 100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10,000 views | 75% | 9th video | 11 | 40% | 61% | 81% |
| 100,000 views | 58% | 23rd video | 35 | 19% | 34% | 56% |
| 1,000,000 views | 23% | 50th video | 62 | 4% | 8% | 17% |
"Within 10 videos" = of creators who had posted at least 10, the share who'd hit the milestone by then. These are creators we found through videos that showed up in searches, so they're people who got some traction; the odds for everyone who starts are lower.
TikToks keep earning for months. Reels peak in the first week
Share of a typical video's first-year views it has by each age, worked out from how fast videos of every age were still gaining views on the same day.
88,571 TikToks and 3,089 Reels measured twice, about a day apart. 81% of TikToks over 3 months old were still gaining views.
Short answers from this study
Questions people ask
What are the chances of a TikTok going viral?
About 1 in 17 TikToks got 10 times the creator's usual views, and about 1 in 167 got 100 times. Most creators (92%) had at least one 10× video since January 2025.
How many videos does it take to go viral on TikTok?
Among new creators who got a video to 100,000 views, the median did it on their 23rd video. To a million views: their 50th video. Only 19% reached 100,000 views within their first 10 videos.
How long does a TikTok keep getting views?
For months. A typical TikTok gets about half its first-year views after its first week, and 81% of videos over 3 months old were still gaining views.
Can an old TikTok go viral later?
Old videos keep trickling in views, and about 16% of videos over 3 months old were gaining at least 1% a day when we measured. Big late revivals happen but are rare.
Do small accounts go viral less often?
In our data, yes: under 1k followers, about 1 in 45 videos got 10× the creator's usual views, against about 1 in 15 at 10k–100k followers.
Is Instagram different?
The odds were similar (about 1 in 23 Reels got 10× the creator's usual), but Reels peak sooner: about 70% of a typical Reel's first-year views come in its first week.
Images to post, repost and embed
Free to use under CC BY 4.0. Keep the credit on the image, and link to yapanddone.com/studies/going-viral when you can. Feed cards are 4:5 for Instagram and LinkedIn; story cards are 9:16 for TikTok, Reels and Stories.
Charts for articles
More videos means more chances
Our other studies look at how often to post and whether followers still matter.
How often should you actually post? Does having followers actually get you more views?How we did it
- Creators and videos: the same 1,700 TikTok and 303 Instagram creators as our follower and posting studies, in 10 niches, with their posts from January 2025 (Instagram: their latest 100 or so Reels). We left out videos under 14 days old, pinned videos, and the video we first found each creator through.
- Breakouts: each video against the median views of the same creator's other videos within ±30 days (at least 5 of them). The odds are averaged across creators with at least 30 such videos, so every creator counts once.
- Share of views: for creators with at least 30 videos, the share of their total views from their top 10% of videos and from their single best.
- New creators: 775 TikTok creators whose whole catalogue we collected (at least 90% of the videos on their profile) and whose first video went up in February 2025 or later. We counted their videos in order until the first that reached 10,000, 100,000 and 1,000,000 views (as of November 2026).
- Lifespan: 88,571 TikToks and 3,089 Reels whose views we recorded twice, about a day apart, in November 2026. For each age (from 6 hours to 18 months), the typical daily growth; adding those up from any age to one year gives the share of first-year views a typical video has by then.
Limitations
- We found these creators through videos that showed up in searches, so they're creators who got at least some traction. The new-creator numbers describe creators who broke through, not the odds for everyone who starts.
- View counts for recent videos are still growing, so a video posted in October 2026 may yet pass a milestone.
- The lifespan curve is built from many videos of different ages measured over the same day, not by following single videos for a year.
- English-language talking-head creators in 10 niches; other kinds of accounts may differ.
Use it, cite it
The aggregated results are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0. Journalists, researchers and AI agents can pull the full numbers below; the plain-text summary contains the whole study.
Cite as
Press questions or a custom cut of the data (a niche, a platform, an account size): contact us. We refresh this study each quarter; this page always shows the latest snapshot.