What are the chances of a TikTok going viral?
About 1 in 17. That's how many TikToks got 10 times their creator's usual views. About 1 in 167 got 100 times, and 92% of creators had at least one 10× video since January 2025.
What we found
- 2× their usual or more: 1 in 4. 5× or more: 1 in 9. 10× or more: 1 in 17. 100× or more: 1 in 167.
- A few videos do most of the work: for the typical creator, the top 10% of videos brought in 65% of all their views.
- Small accounts break out less often: about 1 in 45 videos under 1k followers, against 1 in 15 at 10k–100k.
- On Instagram it's similar: about 1 in 23 Reels got 10× the creator's usual.
How often a TikTok beats the creator's usual views
Share of videos reaching each multiple of the same creator's typical views.
How we know: We compared each of 542,456 TikToks with the same creator's typical views from the surrounding month, across 1,498 creators, and averaged the odds so every creator counts once.
Related questions
What counts as viral?
It's relative to you. We call a video a breakout when it gets 10 times the creator's usual views, whatever their size.
Can you predict which video will go viral?
Not reliably. That's why posting more gives you more chances: the top 10% of a creator's videos bring in most of their views.
Does going viral help the next video?
Yes. The video after a 5× hit got about a third more views than normal (see "How often should you post on TikTok?").