What are the chances of an Instagram Reel going viral?
About 1 in 23. That's how many Reels got 10 times their creator's usual views; about 1 in 233 got 100 times. 90% of creators had at least one 10× Reel among their recent ones.
What we found
- 2× their usual or more: 1 in 5. 5× or more: 1 in 12. 10× or more: 1 in 23. 100× or more: 1 in 233.
- A few Reels do most of the work: the top 10% of a creator's Reels brought in 59% of their views, and their single best Reel 17%.
- 18% of Reels got half their usual views or less.
- TikTok breakouts are a little more common: about 1 in 17 TikToks got 10× the creator's usual.
How often a Reel beats the creator's usual views
Share of Reels reaching each multiple of the same creator's typical views.
How we know: We compared each Reel with the same creator's typical views from the surrounding month, across 212 Instagram creators and their latest 100 or so Reels each, and averaged the odds so every creator counts once.
Related questions
What counts as viral on Instagram?
It's relative to you. We call a Reel a breakout when it gets 10 times the creator's usual views, whatever their size.
How long does a Reel have to go viral?
Not long: a typical Reel gets about 70% of its first-year views in its first week (see "How long does an Instagram Reel keep getting views?").
Is it easier to go viral on TikTok?
Slightly: about 1 in 17 TikToks got 10× the creator's usual views, against 1 in 23 Reels.