{
    "registered_at": "2026-11-07T16:56:11-06:00",
    "registered_from_run": 2,
    "data_collected": "2026-11-06",
    "code_commit": "b83ae9aa71ef193bc528b61470709344cce5e2e5",
    "rule": "Each claim is re-tested on posts collected at the next quarterly refresh, leaving out every post used here, with the same code. Same creator, same controls (type of video, hook, production, setting, post age, length). A claim replicates when the new estimate points the expected way with p < 0.05. Every claim is reported, whether it replicates or not.",
    "claims": [
        {
            "claim": "A headline that promises something specific gets more views",
            "page": "hooks",
            "feature": "h_specific_promise",
            "value": "yes",
            "metric": "views",
            "expected": "higher",
            "estimate": {
                "diff_pct": 18.6,
                "lo_pct": 9,
                "hi_pct": 29,
                "p": 7.0e-5,
                "posts": 7075,
                "creators_varying": 580
            }
        },
        {
            "claim": "A headline that promises something specific gets more shares per view",
            "page": "hooks",
            "feature": "h_specific_promise",
            "value": "yes",
            "metric": "shares_per_view",
            "expected": "higher",
            "estimate": {
                "diff_pct": 11.6,
                "lo_pct": 5.1,
                "hi_pct": 18.4,
                "p": 0.00033,
                "posts": 6997,
                "creators_varying": 554
            }
        },
        {
            "claim": "A headline that promises something specific gets more saves per view",
            "page": "hooks",
            "feature": "h_specific_promise",
            "value": "yes",
            "metric": "saves_per_view",
            "expected": "higher",
            "estimate": {
                "diff_pct": 18.9,
                "lo_pct": 13.6,
                "hi_pct": 24.4,
                "p": 0,
                "posts": 6997,
                "creators_varying": 554
            }
        },
        {
            "claim": "A headline that holds back the payoff gets more views",
            "page": "hooks",
            "feature": "h_curiosity_gap",
            "value": "yes",
            "metric": "views",
            "expected": "higher",
            "estimate": {
                "diff_pct": 18.9,
                "lo_pct": 10.8,
                "hi_pct": 27.6,
                "p": 0,
                "posts": 7840,
                "creators_varying": 646
            }
        },
        {
            "claim": "A headline that repeats the first spoken line gets more views",
            "page": "hooks",
            "feature": "h_matches_speech",
            "value": "same",
            "metric": "views",
            "expected": "higher",
            "estimate": {
                "diff_pct": 21,
                "lo_pct": 8.1,
                "hi_pct": 35.3,
                "p": 0.00089,
                "posts": 4422,
                "creators_varying": 336
            }
        },
        {
            "claim": "A warning-style headline gets fewer saves per view",
            "page": "hooks",
            "feature": "h_negative_framing",
            "value": "yes",
            "metric": "saves_per_view",
            "expected": "lower",
            "estimate": {
                "diff_pct": -10.8,
                "lo_pct": -14.5,
                "hi_pct": -6.9,
                "p": 0,
                "posts": 6696,
                "creators_varying": 506
            }
        },
        {
            "claim": "A headline about \"I/my\" gets fewer shares per view",
            "page": "hooks",
            "feature": "h_says_i",
            "value": "yes",
            "metric": "shares_per_view",
            "expected": "lower",
            "estimate": {
                "diff_pct": -9.4,
                "lo_pct": -14.7,
                "hi_pct": -3.8,
                "p": 0.00118,
                "posts": 5766,
                "creators_varying": 458
            }
        },
        {
            "claim": "A headline that tells viewers to do something gets more shares per view",
            "page": "hooks",
            "feature": "h_form",
            "value": "command",
            "metric": "shares_per_view",
            "expected": "higher",
            "estimate": {
                "diff_pct": 10.9,
                "lo_pct": 4.1,
                "hi_pct": 18.2,
                "p": 0.00143,
                "posts": 4847,
                "creators_varying": 363
            }
        },
        {
            "claim": "Text on screen from the first frame gets more views",
            "page": "captions",
            "feature": "x_first_text",
            "value": "first frame",
            "metric": "views",
            "expected": "higher",
            "estimate": {
                "diff_pct": 14.4,
                "lo_pct": 4.8,
                "hi_pct": 24.9,
                "p": 0.00264,
                "posts": 5377,
                "creators_varying": 434
            }
        },
        {
            "claim": "Asking for comments in the description gets fewer views",
            "page": "hooks",
            "feature": "d_cta_comment",
            "value": "yes",
            "metric": "views",
            "expected": "lower",
            "estimate": {
                "diff_pct": -20.9,
                "lo_pct": -29.8,
                "hi_pct": -11,
                "p": 0.0001,
                "posts": 4227,
                "creators_varying": 312
            }
        },
        {
            "claim": "Asking for comments in the description gets more comments per view",
            "page": "hooks",
            "feature": "d_cta_comment",
            "value": "yes",
            "metric": "comments_per_view",
            "expected": "higher",
            "estimate": {
                "diff_pct": 46.4,
                "lo_pct": 34,
                "hi_pct": 60,
                "p": 0,
                "posts": 4227,
                "creators_varying": 312
            }
        },
        {
            "claim": "\"Link in bio\" or \"DM me\" in the description gets fewer views",
            "page": "hooks",
            "feature": "d_cta_link",
            "value": "yes",
            "metric": "views",
            "expected": "lower",
            "estimate": {
                "diff_pct": -17.2,
                "lo_pct": -26.9,
                "hi_pct": -6.1,
                "p": 0.00332,
                "posts": 2886,
                "creators_varying": 214
            }
        },
        {
            "claim": "Tagging @accounts in the description gets fewer views",
            "page": "hooks",
            "feature": "d_mentions",
            "value": "yes",
            "metric": "views",
            "expected": "lower",
            "estimate": {
                "diff_pct": -18.2,
                "lo_pct": -26.3,
                "hi_pct": -9.2,
                "p": 0.00015,
                "posts": 5103,
                "creators_varying": 383
            }
        },
        {
            "claim": "Asking viewers to save or share gets more saves per view",
            "page": "hooks",
            "feature": "d_cta_save_share",
            "value": "yes",
            "metric": "saves_per_view",
            "expected": "higher",
            "estimate": {
                "diff_pct": 21.6,
                "lo_pct": 11,
                "hi_pct": 33.2,
                "p": 3.0e-5,
                "posts": 2377,
                "creators_varying": 159
            }
        },
        {
            "claim": "Opening with a greeting or setup (\"Hey guys\", \"So today…\") gets fewer views",
            "page": "hooks",
            "feature": "s_opening",
            "value": "warm-up first",
            "metric": "views",
            "expected": "lower",
            "estimate": {
                "diff_pct": -14.1,
                "lo_pct": -20.6,
                "hi_pct": -7,
                "p": 0.00017,
                "posts": 7404,
                "creators_varying": 559
            }
        },
        {
            "claim": "Saying a concrete promise in the first sentence gets more views",
            "page": "hooks",
            "feature": "s_promise",
            "value": "yes",
            "metric": "views",
            "expected": "higher",
            "estimate": {
                "diff_pct": 15.9,
                "lo_pct": 6.6,
                "hi_pct": 26,
                "p": 0.00054,
                "posts": 7779,
                "creators_varying": 592
            }
        },
        {
            "claim": "A first sentence addressed to \"you\" gets more shares per view",
            "page": "hooks",
            "feature": "s_you",
            "value": "yes",
            "metric": "shares_per_view",
            "expected": "higher",
            "estimate": {
                "diff_pct": 10.1,
                "lo_pct": 6.1,
                "hi_pct": 14.2,
                "p": 0,
                "posts": 10125,
                "creators_varying": 759
            }
        },
        {
            "claim": "Captions plus a headline on screen get more saves per view",
            "page": "captions",
            "feature": "text_treatment",
            "value": "captions + title",
            "metric": "saves_per_view",
            "expected": "higher",
            "estimate": {
                "diff_pct": 12.4,
                "lo_pct": 7.2,
                "hi_pct": 17.8,
                "p": 0,
                "posts": 7289,
                "creators_varying": 528
            }
        },
        {
            "claim": "Captions typed on word by word get fewer views",
            "page": "captions",
            "feature": "caption_motion",
            "value": "word_by_word_reveal",
            "metric": "views",
            "expected": "lower",
            "estimate": {
                "diff_pct": -18.4,
                "lo_pct": -30.3,
                "hi_pct": -4.5,
                "p": 0.01134,
                "posts": 2104,
                "creators_varying": 184
            }
        },
        {
            "claim": "A caption setup that is rare in the creator's niche gets fewer views",
            "page": "captions",
            "feature": "niche_fit_archetype",
            "value": "rare",
            "metric": "views",
            "expected": "lower",
            "estimate": {
                "diff_pct": -14.2,
                "lo_pct": -21.4,
                "hi_pct": -6.4,
                "p": 0.0006,
                "posts": 6187,
                "creators_varying": 463
            }
        }
    ]
}