{
    "title": "Does having followers actually get you more views?",
    "subtitle": "A study of 562,163 TikTok and Instagram videos from 1,991 creators, January 2025 to October 2026",
    "url": "https://www.yapanddone.com/studies/followers/",
    "published": "2026-11-08",
    "snapshot": {
        "window": "Videos posted January 2025 to October 2026, views counted November 7, 2026",
        "collected": "2026-11-07"
    },
    "license": {
        "name": "CC BY 4.0",
        "url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"
    },
    "citation": "Yap & Done (2026). Does having followers actually get you more views? https://www.yapanddone.com/studies/followers/",
    "related": [
        {
            "title": "What makes a hook actually work?",
            "url": "https://www.yapanddone.com/studies/hooks/"
        },
        {
            "title": "Which caption styles actually work?",
            "url": "https://www.yapanddone.com/studies/caption-styles/"
        }
    ],
    "sample": {
        "videos": 562163,
        "creators": 1991,
        "tiktok_creators": 1692,
        "instagram_creators": 299,
        "niches": 10
    },
    "platforms": {
        "tiktok": {
            "name": "TikTok",
            "enough": true,
            "posts": 540571,
            "creators": 1692,
            "creator_months": 22107,
            "follow_rate": {
                "per_100_views": 0.25,
                "creators": 1460,
                "hours": 30
            },
            "months": [
                {
                    "month": "2025-01",
                    "slope": 0.464,
                    "lo": 0.427,
                    "hi": 0.501,
                    "x10": 2.91,
                    "x10_lo": 2.68,
                    "x10_hi": 3.17,
                    "creators": 630
                },
                {
                    "month": "2025-02",
                    "slope": 0.442,
                    "lo": 0.407,
                    "hi": 0.479,
                    "x10": 2.77,
                    "x10_lo": 2.55,
                    "x10_hi": 3.01,
                    "creators": 644
                },
                {
                    "month": "2025-03",
                    "slope": 0.467,
                    "lo": 0.435,
                    "hi": 0.502,
                    "x10": 2.93,
                    "x10_lo": 2.72,
                    "x10_hi": 3.18,
                    "creators": 671
                },
                {
                    "month": "2025-04",
                    "slope": 0.46,
                    "lo": 0.423,
                    "hi": 0.5,
                    "x10": 2.88,
                    "x10_lo": 2.65,
                    "x10_hi": 3.16,
                    "creators": 697
                },
                {
                    "month": "2025-05",
                    "slope": 0.464,
                    "lo": 0.431,
                    "hi": 0.5,
                    "x10": 2.91,
                    "x10_lo": 2.7,
                    "x10_hi": 3.16,
                    "creators": 724
                },
                {
                    "month": "2025-06",
                    "slope": 0.454,
                    "lo": 0.422,
                    "hi": 0.493,
                    "x10": 2.84,
                    "x10_lo": 2.64,
                    "x10_hi": 3.11,
                    "creators": 763
                },
                {
                    "month": "2025-07",
                    "slope": 0.45,
                    "lo": 0.417,
                    "hi": 0.48,
                    "x10": 2.82,
                    "x10_lo": 2.61,
                    "x10_hi": 3.02,
                    "creators": 800
                },
                {
                    "month": "2025-08",
                    "slope": 0.449,
                    "lo": 0.414,
                    "hi": 0.483,
                    "x10": 2.81,
                    "x10_lo": 2.59,
                    "x10_hi": 3.04,
                    "creators": 828
                },
                {
                    "month": "2025-09",
                    "slope": 0.425,
                    "lo": 0.388,
                    "hi": 0.457,
                    "x10": 2.66,
                    "x10_lo": 2.44,
                    "x10_hi": 2.87,
                    "creators": 879
                },
                {
                    "month": "2025-10",
                    "slope": 0.449,
                    "lo": 0.421,
                    "hi": 0.477,
                    "x10": 2.81,
                    "x10_lo": 2.64,
                    "x10_hi": 3,
                    "creators": 927
                },
                {
                    "month": "2025-11",
                    "slope": 0.419,
                    "lo": 0.387,
                    "hi": 0.451,
                    "x10": 2.63,
                    "x10_lo": 2.44,
                    "x10_hi": 2.82,
                    "creators": 953
                },
                {
                    "month": "2025-12",
                    "slope": 0.43,
                    "lo": 0.399,
                    "hi": 0.459,
                    "x10": 2.69,
                    "x10_lo": 2.51,
                    "x10_hi": 2.88,
                    "creators": 977
                },
                {
                    "month": "2026-01",
                    "slope": 0.442,
                    "lo": 0.413,
                    "hi": 0.476,
                    "x10": 2.77,
                    "x10_lo": 2.59,
                    "x10_hi": 2.99,
                    "creators": 1028
                },
                {
                    "month": "2026-02",
                    "slope": 0.427,
                    "lo": 0.394,
                    "hi": 0.46,
                    "x10": 2.67,
                    "x10_lo": 2.48,
                    "x10_hi": 2.88,
                    "creators": 1056
                },
                {
                    "month": "2026-03",
                    "slope": 0.424,
                    "lo": 0.393,
                    "hi": 0.459,
                    "x10": 2.66,
                    "x10_lo": 2.47,
                    "x10_hi": 2.88,
                    "creators": 1097
                },
                {
                    "month": "2026-04",
                    "slope": 0.415,
                    "lo": 0.385,
                    "hi": 0.442,
                    "x10": 2.6,
                    "x10_lo": 2.43,
                    "x10_hi": 2.77,
                    "creators": 1145
                },
                {
                    "month": "2026-05",
                    "slope": 0.408,
                    "lo": 0.38,
                    "hi": 0.437,
                    "x10": 2.56,
                    "x10_lo": 2.4,
                    "x10_hi": 2.74,
                    "creators": 1214
                },
                {
                    "month": "2026-06",
                    "slope": 0.42,
                    "lo": 0.395,
                    "hi": 0.45,
                    "x10": 2.63,
                    "x10_lo": 2.48,
                    "x10_hi": 2.82,
                    "creators": 1262
                },
                {
                    "month": "2026-07",
                    "slope": 0.426,
                    "lo": 0.397,
                    "hi": 0.456,
                    "x10": 2.67,
                    "x10_lo": 2.49,
                    "x10_hi": 2.86,
                    "creators": 1330
                },
                {
                    "month": "2026-08",
                    "slope": 0.411,
                    "lo": 0.386,
                    "hi": 0.435,
                    "x10": 2.57,
                    "x10_lo": 2.43,
                    "x10_hi": 2.73,
                    "creators": 1443
                },
                {
                    "month": "2026-09",
                    "slope": 0.409,
                    "lo": 0.385,
                    "hi": 0.432,
                    "x10": 2.57,
                    "x10_lo": 2.43,
                    "x10_hi": 2.71,
                    "creators": 1502
                },
                {
                    "month": "2026-10",
                    "slope": 0.411,
                    "lo": 0.386,
                    "hi": 0.44,
                    "x10": 2.58,
                    "x10_lo": 2.43,
                    "x10_hi": 2.75,
                    "creators": 1537
                }
            ],
            "first_x10": 2.87,
            "last_x10": 2.6,
            "first_slope": 0.459,
            "last_slope": 0.414,
            "break": {
                "month": "2025-11",
                "before_x10": 2.83,
                "after_x10": 2.62,
                "z": -4.3,
                "trend_x10_per_year": -0.032,
                "boot_share": 23,
                "boot_top": {
                    "2025-11": 23,
                    "2025-09": 21,
                    "2026-02": 12,
                    "2026-04": 12
                }
            },
            "within": [
                {
                    "tier": "Under 1k",
                    "creators": 158,
                    "pct": 13,
                    "lo": -2,
                    "hi": 34,
                    "share_up": 56
                },
                {
                    "tier": "1k–10k",
                    "creators": 203,
                    "pct": 10,
                    "lo": -5,
                    "hi": 40,
                    "share_up": 54
                },
                {
                    "tier": "10k–100k",
                    "creators": 217,
                    "pct": -22,
                    "lo": -33,
                    "hi": -11,
                    "share_up": 41
                },
                {
                    "tier": "100k–1M",
                    "creators": 166,
                    "pct": -36,
                    "lo": -44,
                    "hi": -23,
                    "share_up": 30
                },
                {
                    "tier": "1M+",
                    "creators": 45,
                    "pct": -54,
                    "lo": -68,
                    "hi": -45,
                    "share_up": 4
                },
                {
                    "tier": "Under 10k",
                    "creators": 361,
                    "pct": 11,
                    "lo": -1,
                    "hi": 25,
                    "share_up": 55
                },
                {
                    "tier": "100k+",
                    "creators": 211,
                    "pct": -41,
                    "lo": -51,
                    "hi": -36,
                    "share_up": 25
                }
            ],
            "tiers": {
                "Under 1k": {
                    "2025-Q1": {
                        "median_views": 772,
                        "creators": 161,
                        "views_per_follower": 4.325
                    },
                    "2025-Q2": {
                        "median_views": 679,
                        "creators": 171,
                        "views_per_follower": 2.557
                    },
                    "2025-Q3": {
                        "median_views": 596,
                        "creators": 206,
                        "views_per_follower": 2.4
                    },
                    "2025-Q4": {
                        "median_views": 712,
                        "creators": 241,
                        "views_per_follower": 2.565
                    },
                    "2026-Q1": {
                        "median_views": 665,
                        "creators": 259,
                        "views_per_follower": 3.243
                    },
                    "2026-Q2": {
                        "median_views": 638,
                        "creators": 301,
                        "views_per_follower": 2.825
                    },
                    "2026-Q3": {
                        "median_views": 579,
                        "creators": 380,
                        "views_per_follower": 2.401
                    },
                    "2026-Q4": {
                        "median_views": 454,
                        "creators": 307,
                        "views_per_follower": 2.147
                    }
                },
                "1k–10k": {
                    "2025-Q1": {
                        "median_views": 926,
                        "creators": 204,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.35
                    },
                    "2025-Q2": {
                        "median_views": 1091,
                        "creators": 232,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.334
                    },
                    "2025-Q3": {
                        "median_views": 958,
                        "creators": 265,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.306
                    },
                    "2025-Q4": {
                        "median_views": 1090,
                        "creators": 325,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.305
                    },
                    "2026-Q1": {
                        "median_views": 983,
                        "creators": 356,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.293
                    },
                    "2026-Q2": {
                        "median_views": 990,
                        "creators": 418,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.296
                    },
                    "2026-Q3": {
                        "median_views": 1210,
                        "creators": 506,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.26
                    },
                    "2026-Q4": {
                        "median_views": 922,
                        "creators": 419,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.21
                    }
                },
                "10k–100k": {
                    "2025-Q1": {
                        "median_views": 2754,
                        "creators": 213,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.093
                    },
                    "2025-Q2": {
                        "median_views": 3444,
                        "creators": 250,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.094
                    },
                    "2025-Q3": {
                        "median_views": 2717,
                        "creators": 264,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.084
                    },
                    "2025-Q4": {
                        "median_views": 3001,
                        "creators": 313,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.08
                    },
                    "2026-Q1": {
                        "median_views": 2978,
                        "creators": 359,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.08
                    },
                    "2026-Q2": {
                        "median_views": 2889,
                        "creators": 427,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.08
                    },
                    "2026-Q3": {
                        "median_views": 3164,
                        "creators": 541,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.085
                    },
                    "2026-Q4": {
                        "median_views": 2681,
                        "creators": 526,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.073
                    }
                },
                "100k–1M": {
                    "2025-Q1": {
                        "median_views": 18831,
                        "creators": 159,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.082
                    },
                    "2025-Q2": {
                        "median_views": 14989,
                        "creators": 185,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.068
                    },
                    "2025-Q3": {
                        "median_views": 14585,
                        "creators": 198,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.053
                    },
                    "2025-Q4": {
                        "median_views": 13134,
                        "creators": 217,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.051
                    },
                    "2026-Q1": {
                        "median_views": 12880,
                        "creators": 233,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.049
                    },
                    "2026-Q2": {
                        "median_views": 13167,
                        "creators": 265,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.042
                    },
                    "2026-Q3": {
                        "median_views": 10824,
                        "creators": 301,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.036
                    },
                    "2026-Q4": {
                        "median_views": 9573,
                        "creators": 306,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.026
                    }
                },
                "1M+": {
                    "2025-Q1": {
                        "median_views": 99388,
                        "creators": 44,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.045
                    },
                    "2025-Q2": {
                        "median_views": 108100,
                        "creators": 47,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.046
                    },
                    "2025-Q3": {
                        "median_views": 69887,
                        "creators": 47,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.03
                    },
                    "2025-Q4": {
                        "median_views": 66570,
                        "creators": 55,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.027
                    },
                    "2026-Q1": {
                        "median_views": 63388,
                        "creators": 61,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.026
                    },
                    "2026-Q2": {
                        "median_views": 63666,
                        "creators": 64,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.02
                    },
                    "2026-Q3": {
                        "median_views": 47699,
                        "creators": 69,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.015
                    },
                    "2026-Q4": {
                        "median_views": 40551,
                        "creators": 65,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.012
                    }
                }
            },
            "quarters": [
                "2025-Q1",
                "2025-Q2",
                "2025-Q3",
                "2025-Q4",
                "2026-Q1",
                "2026-Q2",
                "2026-Q3",
                "2026-Q4"
            ],
            "overlap_first": {
                "100k–1M vs Under 1k": {
                    "chance_bigger_gets_fewer": 0.08018506278916061,
                    "big": 425,
                    "small": 356
                },
                "100k–1M vs 1k–10k": {
                    "chance_bigger_gets_fewer": 0.11362765825146126,
                    "big": 425,
                    "small": 473
                },
                "10k–100k vs Under 1k": {
                    "chance_bigger_gets_fewer": 0.24830560998040704,
                    "big": 562,
                    "small": 356
                },
                "1M+ vs 1k–10k": {
                    "chance_bigger_gets_fewer": 0.03346608322270843,
                    "big": 129,
                    "small": 473
                }
            },
            "overlap_last": {
                "100k–1M vs Under 1k": {
                    "chance_bigger_gets_fewer": 0.050162353165886735,
                    "big": 296,
                    "small": 283
                },
                "100k–1M vs 1k–10k": {
                    "chance_bigger_gets_fewer": 0.1277121587236091,
                    "big": 296,
                    "small": 393
                },
                "10k–100k vs Under 1k": {
                    "chance_bigger_gets_fewer": 0.13003180212014134,
                    "big": 500,
                    "small": 283
                },
                "1M+ vs 1k–10k": {
                    "chance_bigger_gets_fewer": 0.04165198669015463,
                    "big": 65,
                    "small": 393
                }
            },
            "overlap_first_q": "2025-Q1",
            "overlap_last_q": "2026-Q4",
            "robustness": [
                {
                    "id": "main",
                    "label": "Main estimate",
                    "creators": 1692,
                    "first": 2.87,
                    "last": 2.6,
                    "big": -41,
                    "small": 11
                },
                {
                    "id": "followers_now",
                    "label": "Followers today, no back-cast",
                    "creators": 1692,
                    "first": 4.52,
                    "last": 3.1,
                    "big": -37,
                    "small": -1
                },
                {
                    "id": "half_rate",
                    "label": "Half the measured follow rate",
                    "creators": 1692,
                    "first": 3.37,
                    "last": 2.8,
                    "big": -40,
                    "small": 6
                },
                {
                    "id": "double_rate",
                    "label": "Double the measured follow rate",
                    "creators": 1692,
                    "first": 2.47,
                    "last": 2.36,
                    "big": -45,
                    "small": 11
                },
                {
                    "id": "drop_two_months_before_found",
                    "label": "Leave out the 2 months before we found each creator",
                    "creators": 1595,
                    "first": 2.87,
                    "last": 2.64,
                    "big": -40,
                    "small": 23
                },
                {
                    "id": "found_without_a_hit",
                    "label": "Only creators found without one of their videos taking off",
                    "creators": 96,
                    "first": 4.54,
                    "last": 3.83,
                    "big": -46,
                    "small": null
                },
                {
                    "id": "us_accounts",
                    "label": "US accounts only",
                    "creators": 978,
                    "first": 2.75,
                    "last": 2.57,
                    "big": -40,
                    "small": 9
                },
                {
                    "id": "non_us_accounts",
                    "label": "Accounts outside the US",
                    "creators": 714,
                    "first": 3,
                    "last": 2.58,
                    "big": -46,
                    "small": 11
                }
            ]
        },
        "instagram": {
            "name": "Instagram",
            "enough": true,
            "posts": 21592,
            "creators": 299,
            "creator_months": 1672,
            "follow_rate": {
                "per_100_views": 0.2,
                "creators": 277,
                "hours": 30
            },
            "months": [
                {
                    "month": "2026-01",
                    "slope": 0.506,
                    "lo": 0.277,
                    "hi": 0.693,
                    "x10": 3.21,
                    "x10_lo": 1.89,
                    "x10_hi": 4.94,
                    "creators": 70
                },
                {
                    "month": "2026-02",
                    "slope": 0.552,
                    "lo": 0.291,
                    "hi": 0.903,
                    "x10": 3.57,
                    "x10_lo": 1.95,
                    "x10_hi": 8,
                    "creators": 68
                },
                {
                    "month": "2026-03",
                    "slope": 0.631,
                    "lo": 0.423,
                    "hi": 0.898,
                    "x10": 4.28,
                    "x10_lo": 2.65,
                    "x10_hi": 7.92,
                    "creators": 84
                },
                {
                    "month": "2026-04",
                    "slope": 0.547,
                    "lo": 0.305,
                    "hi": 0.835,
                    "x10": 3.52,
                    "x10_lo": 2.02,
                    "x10_hi": 6.84,
                    "creators": 92
                },
                {
                    "month": "2026-05",
                    "slope": 0.625,
                    "lo": 0.485,
                    "hi": 0.767,
                    "x10": 4.21,
                    "x10_lo": 3.05,
                    "x10_hi": 5.85,
                    "creators": 112
                },
                {
                    "month": "2026-06",
                    "slope": 0.56,
                    "lo": 0.442,
                    "hi": 0.692,
                    "x10": 3.63,
                    "x10_lo": 2.77,
                    "x10_hi": 4.92,
                    "creators": 125
                },
                {
                    "month": "2026-07",
                    "slope": 0.653,
                    "lo": 0.532,
                    "hi": 0.806,
                    "x10": 4.5,
                    "x10_lo": 3.4,
                    "x10_hi": 6.4,
                    "creators": 149
                },
                {
                    "month": "2026-08",
                    "slope": 0.66,
                    "lo": 0.545,
                    "hi": 0.777,
                    "x10": 4.57,
                    "x10_lo": 3.51,
                    "x10_hi": 5.98,
                    "creators": 171
                },
                {
                    "month": "2026-09",
                    "slope": 0.673,
                    "lo": 0.587,
                    "hi": 0.763,
                    "x10": 4.71,
                    "x10_lo": 3.87,
                    "x10_hi": 5.79,
                    "creators": 201
                },
                {
                    "month": "2026-10",
                    "slope": 0.65,
                    "lo": 0.559,
                    "hi": 0.759,
                    "x10": 4.46,
                    "x10_lo": 3.62,
                    "x10_hi": 5.75,
                    "creators": 227
                }
            ],
            "first_x10": 3.72,
            "last_x10": 4.33,
            "first_slope": 0.57,
            "last_slope": 0.637,
            "break": {
                "month": "2026-01",
                "before_x10": 5.82,
                "after_x10": 4.27,
                "z": -1.6,
                "trend_x10_per_year": 0.024,
                "boot_share": 20,
                "boot_top": {
                    "2026-07": 24,
                    "2026-01": 20,
                    "2026-05": 16,
                    "2026-08": 16
                }
            },
            "within": [],
            "tiers": {
                "Under 1k": {
                    "2025-Q1": {
                        "median_views": 1002,
                        "creators": 6,
                        "views_per_follower": 29.042
                    },
                    "2025-Q2": {
                        "median_views": 500,
                        "creators": 5,
                        "views_per_follower": 32.982
                    },
                    "2025-Q3": {
                        "median_views": 2815,
                        "creators": 8,
                        "views_per_follower": 1.154
                    },
                    "2025-Q4": {
                        "median_views": 291,
                        "creators": 7,
                        "views_per_follower": 1.611
                    },
                    "2026-Q1": {
                        "median_views": 364,
                        "creators": 13,
                        "views_per_follower": 9.75
                    },
                    "2026-Q2": {
                        "median_views": 304,
                        "creators": 14,
                        "views_per_follower": 6.9
                    },
                    "2026-Q3": {
                        "median_views": 432,
                        "creators": 17,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.89
                    },
                    "2026-Q4": {
                        "median_views": 158,
                        "creators": 8,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.358
                    }
                },
                "1k–10k": {
                    "2025-Q1": {
                        "median_views": 1422,
                        "creators": 10,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.259
                    },
                    "2025-Q2": {
                        "median_views": 1185,
                        "creators": 12,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.225
                    },
                    "2025-Q3": {
                        "median_views": 952,
                        "creators": 14,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.208
                    },
                    "2025-Q4": {
                        "median_views": 1271,
                        "creators": 18,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.283
                    },
                    "2026-Q1": {
                        "median_views": 1326,
                        "creators": 29,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.376
                    },
                    "2026-Q2": {
                        "median_views": 1902,
                        "creators": 36,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.492
                    },
                    "2026-Q3": {
                        "median_views": 1827,
                        "creators": 55,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.368
                    },
                    "2026-Q4": {
                        "median_views": 1479,
                        "creators": 43,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.248
                    }
                },
                "10k–100k": {
                    "2025-Q1": {
                        "median_views": 6464,
                        "creators": 11,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.116
                    },
                    "2025-Q2": {
                        "median_views": 6406,
                        "creators": 7,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.205
                    },
                    "2025-Q3": {
                        "median_views": 13549,
                        "creators": 21,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.219
                    },
                    "2025-Q4": {
                        "median_views": 6648,
                        "creators": 21,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.173
                    },
                    "2026-Q1": {
                        "median_views": 5921,
                        "creators": 34,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.112
                    },
                    "2026-Q2": {
                        "median_views": 7471,
                        "creators": 57,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.19
                    },
                    "2026-Q3": {
                        "median_views": 4607,
                        "creators": 90,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.193
                    },
                    "2026-Q4": {
                        "median_views": 4582,
                        "creators": 95,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.113
                    }
                },
                "100k–1M": {
                    "2025-Q1": {
                        "median_views": 132654,
                        "creators": 17,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.629
                    },
                    "2025-Q2": {
                        "median_views": 52268,
                        "creators": 13,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.162
                    },
                    "2025-Q3": {
                        "median_views": 89283,
                        "creators": 8,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.398
                    },
                    "2025-Q4": {
                        "median_views": 93647,
                        "creators": 18,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.219
                    },
                    "2026-Q1": {
                        "median_views": 31514,
                        "creators": 29,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.162
                    },
                    "2026-Q2": {
                        "median_views": 55101,
                        "creators": 44,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.182
                    },
                    "2026-Q3": {
                        "median_views": 40862,
                        "creators": 61,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.107
                    },
                    "2026-Q4": {
                        "median_views": 28532,
                        "creators": 75,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.054
                    }
                },
                "1M+": {
                    "2025-Q3": {
                        "median_views": 2377754,
                        "creators": 2,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.603
                    },
                    "2025-Q4": {
                        "median_views": 494183,
                        "creators": 3,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.238
                    },
                    "2026-Q1": {
                        "median_views": 299608,
                        "creators": 5,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.21
                    },
                    "2026-Q2": {
                        "median_views": 301740,
                        "creators": 7,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.169
                    },
                    "2026-Q3": {
                        "median_views": 163170,
                        "creators": 13,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.086
                    },
                    "2026-Q4": {
                        "median_views": 183130,
                        "creators": 10,
                        "views_per_follower": 0.051
                    }
                }
            },
            "quarters": [
                "2025-Q1",
                "2025-Q2",
                "2025-Q3",
                "2025-Q4",
                "2026-Q1",
                "2026-Q2",
                "2026-Q3",
                "2026-Q4"
            ],
            "overlap_first": {
                "100k–1M vs 1k–10k": {
                    "chance_bigger_gets_fewer": 0.08333333333333333,
                    "big": 24,
                    "small": 18
                }
            },
            "overlap_last": {
                "100k–1M vs 1k–10k": {
                    "chance_bigger_gets_fewer": 0.06126984126984127,
                    "big": 75,
                    "small": 42
                }
            },
            "overlap_first_q": "2025-Q1",
            "overlap_last_q": "2026-Q4",
            "robustness": [
                {
                    "id": "main",
                    "label": "Main estimate",
                    "creators": 296,
                    "first": 4.69,
                    "last": 4.33,
                    "big": null,
                    "small": null
                },
                {
                    "id": "followers_now",
                    "label": "Followers today, no back-cast",
                    "creators": 296,
                    "first": 6.34,
                    "last": 5.21,
                    "big": null,
                    "small": null
                },
                {
                    "id": "half_rate",
                    "label": "Half the measured follow rate",
                    "creators": 296,
                    "first": 5.2,
                    "last": 4.76,
                    "big": null,
                    "small": null
                },
                {
                    "id": "double_rate",
                    "label": "Double the measured follow rate",
                    "creators": 296,
                    "first": 4.16,
                    "last": 3.62,
                    "big": null,
                    "small": null
                },
                {
                    "id": "drop_two_months_before_found",
                    "label": "Leave out the 2 months before we found each creator",
                    "creators": 270,
                    "first": 4.69,
                    "last": 4.18,
                    "big": null,
                    "small": null
                },
                {
                    "id": "found_without_a_hit",
                    "label": "Only creators found without one of their videos taking off",
                    "creators": 236,
                    "first": 4.18,
                    "last": 4.24,
                    "big": null,
                    "small": null
                }
            ]
        }
    },
    "events": [
        {
            "date": "2024-11-21",
            "platform": "Instagram",
            "text": "Instagram says it is rebalancing ranking towards accounts people follow, so creators should see unconnected reach go down and connected reach go up.",
            "source": "Adam Mosseri on Threads",
            "url": "https://www.threads.com/@mosseri/post/DCo4WiOvCB0"
        },
        {
            "date": "2026-01-22",
            "platform": "TikTok",
            "text": "TikTok's US business moves to the new US joint venture, which says it will retrain the recommendation algorithm on US data. Creators report sudden drops in reach; in February TikTok tells NPR no changes have been made.",
            "source": "Forbes, January 27, 2026",
            "url": "https://www.forbes.com/sites/katiesalcius/2026/01/27/creators-and-brands-sound-off-on-the-new-us-tiktok/"
        },
        {
            "date": "2026-05-27",
            "platform": "Instagram",
            "text": "Instagram tells creators to read connected reach (followers) and unconnected reach (recommendations) separately; sends matter most for reaching non-followers.",
            "source": "Storyboard18",
            "url": "https://www.storyboard18.com/digital/instagram-chief-adam-mosseri-says-engagement-rates-matter-more-than-reach-for-post-performance-99426.htm"
        },
        {
            "date": "2026-10-28",
            "platform": "Instagram",
            "text": "\"We try to give every piece of content a chance so a brand new account can get millions of views, which wasn't possible two years ago.\"",
            "source": "Adam Mosseri to Colin and Samir",
            "url": "https://www.buzzincontent.com/news/instagram-weighs-watch-time-less-than-rivals-shares-key-to-reaching-non-followers-mosseri-12759750"
        }
    ],
    "tldr": [
        {
            "label": "Big accounts",
            "tone": "costs",
            "text": "TikTok creators with 100k+ followers now get 41% fewer views per video than they did in early 2025 (creators over 1M get 54% fewer)."
        },
        {
            "label": "Small accounts",
            "tone": "works",
            "text": "Creators under 10k followers held steady, and a typical video on an account under 1k followers gets 2.1× more views than the account has followers."
        },
        {
            "label": "Followers still count",
            "tone": "neutral",
            "text": "Having 10× more followers gets you about 2.6× the views on TikTok (down from 2.9× in early 2025) and 4.3× on Instagram—nowhere near 10×."
        },
        {
            "label": "Not the same views",
            "tone": "neutral",
            "text": "A typical video from an account under 1k followers gets about 450 views; from a 100k–1M account, about 9,600. Across a full month, the smaller account beats the bigger one only 5% of the time."
        }
    ],
    "key_findings": [
        {
            "headline": "Big TikTok accounts are getting 41% fewer views per video",
            "text": "We compared each creator's recent videos (July–October 2026) with their own videos from early 2025. TikTok creators who already had 100k+ followers are getting 41% fewer views per video, and creators over 1M followers are getting 54% fewer. Three out of four big accounts saw their typical views drop."
        },
        {
            "headline": "Small accounts held steady—and get most of their views from non-followers",
            "text": "Creators under 10k followers didn't see that drop. Even for an account with under 1,000 followers, a typical video gets about 450 views—2.1× their follower count. That only happens because TikTok shows new videos to people who don't follow you yet."
        },
        {
            "headline": "10× more followers only gets you about 2.6× more views",
            "text": "Followers still give you a higher floor, just nowhere near 1-for-1. On TikTok, a creator with 100,000 followers gets about 7× the views of a creator with 1,000 followers—not 100×. That gap has shrunk slightly since early 2025 (from 2.9× down to 2.6× for every 10× in followers)."
        },
        {
            "headline": "Why you see 200k accounts getting 100-follower views",
            "text": "Single videos on big accounts now stall out when viewers scroll past them, while a strong video on a tiny account can take off. Across a whole month of posts, though, a 100k–1M TikTok account still averages about 9,600 views per video vs. about 450 for an account under 1k. The smaller account beats the bigger one across a full month only 5% of the time."
        },
        {
            "headline": "The drop started in late 2025—before the US TikTok sale",
            "text": "Many creators blamed the January 2026 US TikTok deal for their drop in views. In the data, the slide started in autumn 2025 (around November 2025), and big creators outside the US lost just as many views (−46%) as US creators (−40%)."
        },
        {
            "headline": "Followers still matter more on Instagram",
            "text": "On Instagram, having 10× more followers gets you about 4.3× the views, compared to 2.6× on TikTok. Instagram still sends a bigger share of your views from people who already follow you."
        }
    ],
    "advice": [
        "Don't wait for followers before you post: most of a small account's views already come from people who don't follow it.",
        "If you have a big following, don't count on it. Big accounts' views per video are falling; judge each video on its own and keep testing formats.",
        "Followers still help, but each 10× in followers buys roughly 2–3× the views on TikTok (about 4× on Instagram), not 10×. A better hook usually moves views more than a bigger audience.",
        "Compare yourself with your own last few months, not with accounts of your size: the gap between accounts of the same size is huge."
    ],
    "method": [
        "Creators: every account our niche miner had screened as genuinely in one of 10 niches (career, personal finance, fitness and nutrition, skincare, dating, manifestation and more), at any size: 1,692 on TikTok and 299 on Instagram, from under 100 followers to over 10 million.",
        "Videos: we collected each creator's posts back to January 2025 (up to about 1,000 per creator on TikTok; on Instagram, where our data access is rationed, their latest 100 or so reels) and counted views on November 7, 2026. Videos under 14 days old, pinned videos and ads were left out.",
        "Followers at the time: platforms only show today's follower count. We counted each creator's followers and views on November 6 and again about 30 hours later; the followers gained per new view (a median of 0.25 per 100 views on TikTok, 0.2 on Instagram) let us estimate each creator's followers on any past date by subtracting the followers their later views would have brought in. Every headline result is also tested below with no adjustment, half the rate, and double the rate.",
        "Same-creator comparison: each creator's median video in July–October 2026 against their own median video in January–June 2025, grouped by their followers in early 2025. For 100k+ TikTok creators, the median change was −41% (95% bootstrap range: 36% to 51% fewer; across all 8 sensitivity checks below: 37% to 46% fewer). For creators under 10k, it ranged from −1% to +23% across the checks.",
        "How much followers matter: for each month, one point per creator (their median video that month) and a regression of log views on log followers at the time, within each niche. The slope gives how many times the views 10× the followers went with; 95% ranges come from resampling creators 200 times. The single month that best splits TikTok's series in two is November 2025 (2.8× before vs. 2.6× after; chosen in 23% of bootstrap resamples, with the decline in the 10× multiplier ranging from 4% to 31% across the sensitivity checks)."
    ],
    "limitations": [
        "Followers at the time of posting are estimated, not observed. The drop in big accounts' views held under every assumption we tried; the exact size of the change in the 10×-followers multiplier is more sensitive to that assumption, so we report all 8 versions in the table below.",
        "Most small creators were found through a video that was doing well, which flatters the months around it. We left out that video, and checked that results hold when the two months before we found each creator are left out too.",
        "Creators had to still be posting in late 2026 to be included. Accounts that quit earlier are missing from the 2025 months.",
        "Older videos have had longer to collect views, though short-form views mostly settle within two weeks.",
        "This covers English-language talking-head creators in 10 niches. Other formats (music, comedy, meme pages, brands) may behave differently.",
        "Observational data shows what happened to views at each account size, not which platform tweak caused it."
    ],
    "faq": [
        {
            "q": "Do followers still matter on TikTok and Instagram?",
            "a": "Yes, just much less than most people think. Having 10× more followers gets you about 2.6× the views on TikTok and 4.3× on Instagram—not 10×. A bigger account still gets higher average views than a small account, but a strong hook matters more than follower count."
        },
        {
            "q": "Why are big accounts getting fewer views?",
            "a": "Platforms now test each new video on a small group of viewers and only push it wider if people watch it through, share it, or save it. A big account with older, less active followers no longer gets automatic views. In our data, TikTok creators with 100k+ followers got 41% fewer views per video in late 2026 than they did in early 2025, and 1M+ creators got 54% fewer."
        },
        {
            "q": "Why do I see 200k-follower accounts getting the same views as 100-follower accounts?",
            "a": "Because single videos on big accounts can now stall out at a few hundred views if people scroll past them, while a good video on a tiny account can take off. Across a whole month of posts, though, a 100k–1M TikTok account still averages about 9,600 views per video vs. about 450 for an account under 1k (the smaller account beats the bigger one across a full month about 5% of the time)."
        },
        {
            "q": "Is Instagram different from TikTok?",
            "a": "Yes. Followers still count for more on Instagram: 10× more followers gets you about 4.3× the views there, compared to 2.6× on TikTok."
        },
        {
            "q": "Did the January 2026 US TikTok deal cause the drop in views?",
            "a": "Probably not on its own. The drop in our data started in autumn 2025 (around November 2025)—months before the January 2026 US ownership transfer—and big creators outside the US lost just as many views (−46%) as US creators (−40%)."
        },
        {
            "q": "If you only had today's follower counts, how did you know what creators had in 2025?",
            "a": "We tracked how many new followers each creator gained per 100 new views over a 30-hour window, then worked backwards from today's follower count by subtracting the followers their videos earned along the way. We also tested the data with no adjustment at all, and at half and double that rate—big accounts were down 37% to 46% in every version."
        }
    ],
    "images": {
        "hero": {
            "src": "img/hero.jpg",
            "width": 1800,
            "height": 1149,
            "alt": "Real frames from videos in the study: 3k followers (); 203k followers (); 2.1M followers ()."
        },
        "og": {
            "src": "og.jpg",
            "square": "og-square.jpg",
            "alt": "Does having followers actually get you more views? −41% TikTok creators with 100k+ followers are getting 41% fewer views per video than they did in early 2025."
        },
        "panel": {
            "eyebrow": "YAP & DONE STUDY",
            "facts": [
                "November 2026"
            ],
            "stat": "−41%",
            "caption": "TikTok creators with 100k+ followers are getting 41% fewer views per video than they did in early 2025.",
            "frames": [
                {
                    "src": "img/panel-0.jpg",
                    "width": 420,
                    "height": 746
                },
                {
                    "src": "img/panel-1.jpg",
                    "width": 420,
                    "height": 746
                },
                {
                    "src": "img/panel-2.jpg",
                    "width": 420,
                    "height": 746
                }
            ]
        },
        "cards": [
            {
                "id": "big-accounts",
                "headline": "TikTok creators with 100k+ followers",
                "stat": "41%",
                "unit": "fewer views",
                "feed": "share/big-accounts-feed.png",
                "story": "share/big-accounts-story.png",
                "alt": "TikTok creators with 100k+ followers: 41% fewer views per video than the same creators got in early 2025.  Yap & Done study of 1,991 creators, 2026."
            },
            {
                "id": "small-accounts",
                "headline": "TikTok accounts under 1k followers",
                "stat": "2.1×",
                "unit": "their follower count in views",
                "feed": "share/small-accounts-feed.png",
                "story": "share/small-accounts-story.png",
                "alt": "TikTok accounts under 1k followers: 2.1× their follower count in views on a typical video in late 2026.  Yap & Done study of 1,991 creators, 2026."
            },
            {
                "id": "ten-times",
                "headline": "10× the followers",
                "stat": "2.6×",
                "unit": "the views",
                "feed": "share/ten-times-feed.png",
                "story": "share/ten-times-story.png",
                "alt": "10× the followers: 2.6× the views on TikTok in late 2026, within the same niche.  Yap & Done study of 1,991 creators, 2026."
            }
        ],
        "charts": [
            {
                "id": "follower-pull",
                "title": "How many times the views 10× the followers gets you",
                "src": "charts/follower-pull.png",
                "alt": "How many times the views 10× the followers gets you. Each point compares creators in the same niche that month, with 95% ranges. 1× would mean followers make no difference."
            },
            {
                "id": "views-by-size",
                "title": "Views on a typical TikTok video, by account size",
                "src": "charts/views-by-size.png",
                "alt": "Views on a typical TikTok video, by account size. Median views per video each quarter, each creator counted once, by followers at the time."
            },
            {
                "id": "same-creators",
                "title": "Change in views per video for the same TikTok creators",
                "src": "charts/same-creators.png",
                "alt": "Change in views per video for the same TikTok creators. July–October 2026 against January–June 2025, by followers in early 2025. Median creator in each group."
            }
        ]
    }
}